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COVID-19 economy —market recovery could depend upon recession

With coronavirus anxiety slowing the economy, stock market fear is rampant. And it still could get worse. But eventually, the mood will shift from fear to something entirely different — fear of missing out on the eventual rebound.

Are we there yet? Probably not, but who knows? It’s not like a basketball game (remember those?) when a horn sounded to end the first half. There won’t be a horn dproclaiming an all-clear signal with this. The bottoming of the stock market, when it arrives, might not be apparent except in hindsight, possibly months later.

Here are some observations to help put it all into perspective.

Should we wait for a recession to end?

Probably not. You might think it’s premature to start looking for a stock-market bottom before a potential recession ends. Recessions are defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining economic output. We haven’t even had one negative quarter yet, so it hasn’t officially arrived.

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