Economy could predict whether Trump wins 2020 election

Economy could predict whether Trump wins 2020 election


Fears over a potential recession and plunging stock markets fueled by the coronavirus pandemic could threaten President Trump’s efforts to secure a second term.

As it turns out, the U.S. economy has an impressive track record of predicting the next president, if history is any indication. 

The U.S. economy predicted the winner of 16 of the previous 18 elections where a sitting president was up for re-election, according to LPL Financial. You have to reach back to Calvin Coolidge in 1924 to find the last time the economy was wrong regarding the re-election of a president. 

“Incredibly, the last 11 times there wasn’t a recession within two years of a re-election, the sitting president won,” Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, said in a note. “Compare that to the seven times there was a recession, and the incumbent president didn’t get re-elected five of those times.”

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President Donald Trump speaks alongside Vice President Mike Pence in the briefing room of the White House in Washington, Monday, March 9, 2020, about the coronavirus outbreak.

To be sure, the economy doesn’t appear to be in a recession. In fact, the U.S. economy headed into 2020 on a solid footing, driven by strong jobs growth, robust consumer spending and a firming housing market.  

But stocks ended the longest-ever bull market Thursday as disruptions due to the coronavirus have rippled through the global economy. Bear markets and recessions typically go together, but not always. Stocks have dropped 37% on average in bear markets during a recession, while losing 24% when a downturn is avoided, according to Detrick. 


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